This is copied and pasted from the blog I maintain on my author website. I normally blog from here and then export to other sites, but when I blog from my author site, it doesn't export to here, so...
Here is the blogpost:
Last weekend, I made several predictions about how the 2016 presidential campaign will play out. I was waaaay wrong about Jeb Bush, which was my out of the world prediction - that he would be the GOP nominee. But I do think he dropped out too soon. He should have waited until Super Tuesday because the field is still crowded enough and enough delegates are still up for grabs for him to make an impact while not hurting Rubio enough. Despite their "feud," Rubio, I believe would be his answer to the question, "If you couldn't be the nominee, who would you like to see as the nominee?"
Okay, one of my predictions is that Ted Cruz would the kingmaker at a brokered GOP convention. I think this is more realistic now, and I think what will happen is that the GOP insiders will play "campaign games" to see what combination will have the best chance of winning the election.
I think no matter who the GOP nominee is, he will win the rural vote. However, between Trump/Cruz/Rubio, I believe Rubio will be the best choice to challenge the Democrats in the urban areas. I think Trump refuses to budge, and Cruz, despite all his fights with the GOP establishment, backs down and asks his delegates to support Rubio on a subsequent ballot.
So, here is my edit to one of the predictions I made last week. Rubio will be the GOP nominee
As a reward, Cruz is asked what he wants. I'm not sure if he would want this, but if he wanted to be the VP candidate, I'm pretty sure it would be his for the asking.
A Rubio/Cruz ticket would probably the most volatile since Kennedy/Johnson became running mates, but most of the time, the presidential candidate and vice-presidential candidate are from two different constituencies (philosophically like Reagan/Bush, Geographically like again. Reagan/Bush, or vocationally like Clinton/Gore (Governor and Senator)) And in this case, it would bring marry two factions of the Republican party - and the only question would be how well they could bring in the libertarian faction of the party into the fold.
As I write this, Nevada is deciding on their choice for the Republican nominee and Rubio seems to be getting the bulk of endorsements from the establishment - it was as if the establishment was waiting for either Rubio or Bush to drop out, and now that Bush has suspended his campaign, it was like an invitation for them to endorse Rubio.
For the Democratic side, it seems what I predicted, that Sanders must decidedly defeat Clinton in several states, is getting more coverage. Clinton has the Democratic establishment backing her and she may win the Democratic nomination even if she enters the convention with less pledged delegates from the popular voting.
So, super Tuesday is next week. Lets see how far off I am.
Tuesday, February 23, 2016
Tuesday, February 16, 2016
Thoughts on How the 2016 Presidential Elections Will Play Out
I generally stay out of political discussions, and the following is not an endorsement of any candidate. One of the best exercises for writers is that of "What If," and over the last couple of days, I was doing this with this year's candidates. Nostradamus, I'm not, but I'd like to record some predictions.
If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but if I'm right, it'd be nice to have a record of my predictions before the fact. So, here goes. - I am writing this on February 16, 2016
1. Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination.
The Clinton supporters probably said, "Duh," but the Sanders supporters probably said, "No way!" I think the most recent polls show the two candidates in a dead heat. When everything is all over and done with, Sanders might end up with more pledged delegates at the convention.
The following has been mentioned, but won't get much airtime until the convention because it wont't come into play unless the candidates are within about 10% of each other at that time. That is the role of superdelegates. Super-delegates in the Democratic party will make up about 15% of the delegates at the convention. These delegates are party leaders and officials, and are not bound to vote for the candidate who "won" the primary or caucus in the state from which he/she is from.
In a tight race, if one candidate has the support of a vast majority of these superdelegates, then that candidate, even losing the "popular" vote during the primary season, could win the Democratic party nomination. And, at this time, it seems Hillary Clinton will be getting a vast majority of these votes.
So, the primary and caucus voting will be tight, Sanders might even have more pledged delegates when the convention starts, but Hillary Clinton will win the nomination.
2. The Republican Nominee Will be the result of a Brokered Convention, and Ted Cruz will be the King-Maker
Donald Trump may possibly win the plurality of primary and caucuses, and show up with the most delegates, but he needs 50%, and he will be far from it. I think he'll probably end up with about 30 - 35% of the pledged delegates. And I don't think any of the current candidates will be dropping out.
The Republican version of Super-delegates, the unpledged delegates make up less than 10% of the total, and I don't think they will be voting for Trump as long as Rubio and Bush are in the race.
So, let's say the following will be at the time of convention.
A. Trump 35%
B. Cruz 25%
C. Rubio 25%
D. Bush 10%
E. Others 5%
I think Carson will drop down to the "also rans," as the primary season progresses.
So, no one gets the nomination on the first ballot, and the dealing begins. I doubt Trump will get any of the Bush/Rubio supporters, so his defectors have to come from Cruz. But I don't think Cruz will drop out. Bush/Rubio would probably negotiate and one or the other would combine their delegates. That gives them 35%, plus about 10% of the non-pledged delegates. I think the Carson votes will go to Trump, and the Kasich votes go to Rubio/Bush.
This leaves Trump and Rubio/Bush with about 40% of the votes each, and Cruz with 25%, but lets say 20%, since the superdelegates will dilute his share.
So, by second ballot, it will be
A. Trump 40%
B. Rubio/Bush 40%
C. Cruz 20%
Cruz will be king maker and the candidate he supports will win the nomination. It will be the one who is feuding with him the least.
I don't know who it will be, but if I had to stick my my neck out, it would be Jeb Bush. I think currently Rubio might be the establishment favorite, but 1. Ted Cruz might say he would support Bush, but not Rubio for the candidacy; 2. the really big donors might favor Bush - and with these two reasons, Rubio might agree to defer to Bush for the nomination. If this happens, then Rubio will almost be assured to choose whether he wants to be the VP candidate, which he may or may not want.
3. It Doesn't Really Matter if Trump Runs as an Independent.
After not getting the nomination, Trump may run as an independent. At first, it may seem that this will hurt the Republican candidate, but I think it's more complicated than that. Regardless of what Trump decides, a good number of Republicans who voted for Trump in the primaries will end up voting for the Republican candidate, so I don't think it hurts the Republicans in this respect.
As for the Republicans who vote for Trump as an Independent, I think he will be able to pull enough Democrats over to his side to even things out. However, I think what would happen is that in the more liberal states, the Republicans will vote for the nominee, and Democrats will not cross over to Trump. In the more conservative states, Trump pulls from the Republican candidate, but also gets cross over from the Democrats. I think it evens out.
If Trump doesn't run as an independent, a lot of his supporters would sit out the election.
4. If Trump Makes A Big Impact, Jeb Bush will be the Next President, but I highly doubt this will happen.
If Trump wins enough states to prevent either party from enough electoral votes, then the election goes to the House, in which case, the Republicans will win since they have the majority.
4. Of Course, there is a way for Trump to get enough electoral votes to send the election to the House.
After the 2000 elections, several states, including California (a large state), made a change to who their electoral votes will go to. Instead of the candidate who wins the state, the electoral votes will go to the candidate who wins the popular vote nationally. At least in California, I believe this went into effect in 2008, and California voters voted for the same candidate who won the popular national vote. However,what would happen if Donald Trump gets the most popular votes nationally by finishing in second in many states? He could get a significant number of electoral votes by not even winning a state.
5. If Bush and Clinton Get the Nominations, it will be a Proxy Vote between Bill Clinton and George W. Bush
Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton will run as individuals, but invariably it will turn into a popularity contest between the Bill Clinton and George W, Bush administrations. I think people have fonder memories of the Bill Clinton years and thus, Hillary Clinton will win.
So, that's my prediction for this election year. There are so many variables tat have not played out, yet, including Hillary Clinton's email issue, and Ted Cruz' citizenship issues, and other issues that may or may not pop up. But given the situation today, I think it will play out in a way that Hillary Clinton will be our next president.
When I first starting writing this piece, I was sure I'd conclude that Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee, that Marco Rubio would be the Republican nominee, and Donald Trump wouldn't make a difference whether he ran as an independent or not. I'm pretty confident that Hillary will win the Democratic nominee, and the Republicans will have a brokered convention, but other than that, I think this is how it will play out, but I'm not too sure.
As they say in sports, "That's why you play the game. You never know how it will turn out."
If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but if I'm right, it'd be nice to have a record of my predictions before the fact. So, here goes. - I am writing this on February 16, 2016
1. Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination.
The Clinton supporters probably said, "Duh," but the Sanders supporters probably said, "No way!" I think the most recent polls show the two candidates in a dead heat. When everything is all over and done with, Sanders might end up with more pledged delegates at the convention.
The following has been mentioned, but won't get much airtime until the convention because it wont't come into play unless the candidates are within about 10% of each other at that time. That is the role of superdelegates. Super-delegates in the Democratic party will make up about 15% of the delegates at the convention. These delegates are party leaders and officials, and are not bound to vote for the candidate who "won" the primary or caucus in the state from which he/she is from.
In a tight race, if one candidate has the support of a vast majority of these superdelegates, then that candidate, even losing the "popular" vote during the primary season, could win the Democratic party nomination. And, at this time, it seems Hillary Clinton will be getting a vast majority of these votes.
So, the primary and caucus voting will be tight, Sanders might even have more pledged delegates when the convention starts, but Hillary Clinton will win the nomination.
2. The Republican Nominee Will be the result of a Brokered Convention, and Ted Cruz will be the King-Maker
Donald Trump may possibly win the plurality of primary and caucuses, and show up with the most delegates, but he needs 50%, and he will be far from it. I think he'll probably end up with about 30 - 35% of the pledged delegates. And I don't think any of the current candidates will be dropping out.
The Republican version of Super-delegates, the unpledged delegates make up less than 10% of the total, and I don't think they will be voting for Trump as long as Rubio and Bush are in the race.
So, let's say the following will be at the time of convention.
A. Trump 35%
B. Cruz 25%
C. Rubio 25%
D. Bush 10%
E. Others 5%
I think Carson will drop down to the "also rans," as the primary season progresses.
So, no one gets the nomination on the first ballot, and the dealing begins. I doubt Trump will get any of the Bush/Rubio supporters, so his defectors have to come from Cruz. But I don't think Cruz will drop out. Bush/Rubio would probably negotiate and one or the other would combine their delegates. That gives them 35%, plus about 10% of the non-pledged delegates. I think the Carson votes will go to Trump, and the Kasich votes go to Rubio/Bush.
This leaves Trump and Rubio/Bush with about 40% of the votes each, and Cruz with 25%, but lets say 20%, since the superdelegates will dilute his share.
So, by second ballot, it will be
A. Trump 40%
B. Rubio/Bush 40%
C. Cruz 20%
Cruz will be king maker and the candidate he supports will win the nomination. It will be the one who is feuding with him the least.
I don't know who it will be, but if I had to stick my my neck out, it would be Jeb Bush. I think currently Rubio might be the establishment favorite, but 1. Ted Cruz might say he would support Bush, but not Rubio for the candidacy; 2. the really big donors might favor Bush - and with these two reasons, Rubio might agree to defer to Bush for the nomination. If this happens, then Rubio will almost be assured to choose whether he wants to be the VP candidate, which he may or may not want.
3. It Doesn't Really Matter if Trump Runs as an Independent.
After not getting the nomination, Trump may run as an independent. At first, it may seem that this will hurt the Republican candidate, but I think it's more complicated than that. Regardless of what Trump decides, a good number of Republicans who voted for Trump in the primaries will end up voting for the Republican candidate, so I don't think it hurts the Republicans in this respect.
As for the Republicans who vote for Trump as an Independent, I think he will be able to pull enough Democrats over to his side to even things out. However, I think what would happen is that in the more liberal states, the Republicans will vote for the nominee, and Democrats will not cross over to Trump. In the more conservative states, Trump pulls from the Republican candidate, but also gets cross over from the Democrats. I think it evens out.
If Trump doesn't run as an independent, a lot of his supporters would sit out the election.
4. If Trump Makes A Big Impact, Jeb Bush will be the Next President, but I highly doubt this will happen.
If Trump wins enough states to prevent either party from enough electoral votes, then the election goes to the House, in which case, the Republicans will win since they have the majority.
4. Of Course, there is a way for Trump to get enough electoral votes to send the election to the House.
After the 2000 elections, several states, including California (a large state), made a change to who their electoral votes will go to. Instead of the candidate who wins the state, the electoral votes will go to the candidate who wins the popular vote nationally. At least in California, I believe this went into effect in 2008, and California voters voted for the same candidate who won the popular national vote. However,what would happen if Donald Trump gets the most popular votes nationally by finishing in second in many states? He could get a significant number of electoral votes by not even winning a state.
5. If Bush and Clinton Get the Nominations, it will be a Proxy Vote between Bill Clinton and George W. Bush
Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton will run as individuals, but invariably it will turn into a popularity contest between the Bill Clinton and George W, Bush administrations. I think people have fonder memories of the Bill Clinton years and thus, Hillary Clinton will win.
So, that's my prediction for this election year. There are so many variables tat have not played out, yet, including Hillary Clinton's email issue, and Ted Cruz' citizenship issues, and other issues that may or may not pop up. But given the situation today, I think it will play out in a way that Hillary Clinton will be our next president.
When I first starting writing this piece, I was sure I'd conclude that Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee, that Marco Rubio would be the Republican nominee, and Donald Trump wouldn't make a difference whether he ran as an independent or not. I'm pretty confident that Hillary will win the Democratic nominee, and the Republicans will have a brokered convention, but other than that, I think this is how it will play out, but I'm not too sure.
As they say in sports, "That's why you play the game. You never know how it will turn out."
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